On the 15th of June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a declaration on allied relations in the town of Shusha, located in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
The Shusha Declaration touches upon the issues of mutual assistance in the military sphere and contains a clause on the Zangezur corridor, which will connect Azerbaijan and Turkey by road and rail. It connects Azerbaijan’s main territory with its historic Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic by a 40km transport corridor running through Armenian territory. The corridor has geopolitical significance which goes beyond the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s Minister of Economy, Mikayil Jabbarov, summarized the widespread opinion of economic experts, expressing the notion that the Zangezur corridor will increase the transit and logistics potential of the entire region:
“The implementation of this potential will lead to the launch of new transport routes and strengthen regional cooperation and stability.”
Russian and European experts on the Caucasus agree adding that the opening of the Zangezur corridor will free Armenia from the blockade, which has been in motion since the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s.
Residents of Armenia will also be able to use this route to facilitate their communications with Russia, Armenia’s prime trading partner. This makes the Zangezur corridor especially important for Yerevan.
Indeed, this particular corridor will enhance regional trade allowing Armenia to play a greater role in Russia’s market, providing an alternative trade route for Turkey and the Middle East. For Russia, not only is this is a major economic opportunity for its South Caucasus Railway Company, already amongst major railroad projects in Armenia, but it is also a chance to increase trade and tourism, providing a more accessible route for Turkey and Azerbaijan.
For the EU, Azerbaijan is a key strategic partner for Europe in securing the transfer of energy supplies, in fact, the Caucus country supplies around 4.3% of Europe’s oil. The Zangezur corridor will further these relations as well as the security of EU interests as it provides another trade route connecting Europe to Asia, circumventing China and Russia, and ultimately securing the transfer of European goods. As the EU is currently in the midst of tense discussions with China, this corridor provides the bloc with a sense of security.
In the framework of the Shusha Declaration, Turkey and Azerbaijan developed a joint initiative to create a hexagonal cooperation platform designed to advance strategic issues. The countries involved consist of Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran and Armenia for advancing such strategic issues.
An analysis paper by the global think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes that:
“The November agreement potentially opens up an opportunity to envisage the South Caucasus anew, with new transport connections and economic cooperation possible for the first time since the Soviet era. There are plans for a restored road and rail connection between Nakhichevan and the rest of Azerbaijan via Armenia. Armenians may also be able to travel from Yerevan to southern Armenia and Iran via Nakhichevan, a much easier route than the highland roads of Armenia.”
However, in Armenia itself, as well as in Iran, which some say supplied Armenia with weapons through the Zangezur corridor during the last military confrontation and which maintains close intelligence and military links with Armenia, there is resistance to the implementation of the Zangezur corridor clause of the agreements.
Armenian leadership is well aware of its population’s indignation towards the government’s inept handling of the war, as well as the aftermath. Indeed, Armenia’s inability to implement the Zangezur transport corridor project is impeding on the country’s economic development opportunities.
Still, the difficult socio-economic situation in which Armenia finds itself is gradually forcing Yerevan to reconcile with the inevitability of the corridor’s opening. As such, discussions are already underway between the Prime Ministers of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia.
If the Zangezur corridor is successful, it will provide the region with greater opportunities for economic development, deepening cooperation across Europe. Not only will it enhance the region’s infrastructure, but it will also free Armenia from the blockade and socio-economic strains it is currently under.
